UniCredit Earnings Put Commerzbank Deal and Upgrades in Focus

Consensus estimates compiled by UniCredit point to revenue of 6.48 billion euros ($7.28 billion), up from 6.17 billion euros in the third quarter last year. Analysts expect net profit of 2.78 billion euros, compared with 2.63 billion euros a year earlier.

UniCredit shares gained 5.9% in the third quarter but have fallen 4.9% since then. Through Wednesday’s close, they were up 10% since the start of the year.

Investors will be watching for developments in UniCredit’s bid for Commerzbank. UniCredit secured European Central Bank approval last month, and Commerzbank management has recently responded more favorably to the offer. Commerzbank said Thursday that the remaining regulatory approval is expected in the fourth quarter or by early 2027. Chief Executive Officer Bettina Orlopp said a combination could create value by drawing on both banks’ strengths. Commerzbank has begun preparatory work and is having constructive discussions with UniCredit.

Barclays analysts expect further earnings-consensus upgrades for UniCredit in the short term, citing higher rates, organic growth and the eventual consolidation of Commerzbank. Monday’s results could prompt analysts to raise expectations on those grounds.

Deposit competition is another point to watch. Some banks, including Commerzbank, have flagged increased competition for deposits in their third-quarter results. As one of the later European banks to report this quarter, UniCredit may indicate whether that pressure is weighing on net interest margins.