U.S. Ag Markets Face Data Deluge as Cocoa Prices Stabilize

The trading week of Feb. 17-20 is anchored by a flurry of fundamental and macroeconomic indicators. Beyond the NOPA crush figures, market participants are focused on the USDA Outlook Forum this Thursday, where the department will release its first 2026-27 balance sheets. According to analysts at Peak Trading Research, these model-based estimates are particularly significant this year as trade policy and demand assumptions have shifted since the last baseline reports.

In the grain markets, attention remains fixed on South American weather patterns. While northern and central Brazil are receiving adequate rainfall, analysts warn that dry spells in southern Brazil and Argentina could still jeopardize crop prospects. Despite these risks, seasonal trends for mid-February typically lean bullish for soybeans. In recent trading, Chicago wheat futures fell 2.1% to $5.37 a bushel, while corn slipped to $4.28 and soybeans edged up to $11.37.

Supply Dynamics and Global Policy

The soft commodities sector is grappling with a volatile correction, led by cocoa. After plummeting 70% from record highs in late 2024, cocoa prices steadied near $3,492 a ton on Tuesday. This decline is attributed to favorable West African rainfall and logistical bottlenecks in the Ivory Coast, where exporters have balked at high domestic prices. ING analysts note that warehouses and ports remain congested with unsold beans as exporters refuse to pay elevated farm-gate prices.

Regional policy shifts are adding further pressure to the market. Ghana has moved to link farmer payments directly to international rates, a decision analysts believe will force the Ivory Coast to adopt similar measures. Elsewhere in the sector, coffee futures experienced a sharp 5.2% drop to $2.83 a pound, while sugar prices saw a marginal gain to 12.53 cents. The market will closely monitor several key catalysts through the remainder of the week:

• Release of the 2026-27 U.S. balance sheets at the USDA Forum.
• Federal Reserve meeting minutes and updated U.S. GDP data.
• The PCE inflation gauge, the Fed's preferred measure of price growth.