EIA Trims Global Oil Demand Forecast Amid Regional Instability

The agency points to Asia as the primary driver behind this downturn, citing a combination of government demand-curbing measures and limited access to critical supply routes. Brent crude prices are expected to remain elevated, hovering around $95 a barrel throughout 2026, with seasonal spikes reaching $105 during the summer months due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Inventories face significant pressure, with global stocks projected to drop by 7.6 million barrels per day during the third quarter. OECD liquid fuel stockpiles are tracking toward 2.3 billion barrels by December—the lowest level recorded since 2003. According to the EIA, stability depends on the eventual reopening of maritime chokepoints, which would allow for a production recovery and a subsequent price correction to an average of $79 a barrel by 2027.