Novo Nordisk Braces for Profit Dip Amid Wegovy Price Pressure

Financial analysts surveyed by FactSet anticipate net profit will slip to 25.52 billion Danish kroner ($4.03 billion), down from the previous year. Revenue is also projected to contract, falling to 76.85 billion kroner. These figures arrive at a volatile time for the company, whose shares have retreated 39% over the past 12 months as investors weigh the sustainability of its dominant position in the metabolic health market.

Strategic Headwinds and Market Competition

The company faces a complex array of obstacles in the coming year, according to Sydbank senior analyst Soren Lontoft Hansen. Beyond the immediate earnings dip, Novo Nordisk is contending with the rise of generic competitors in the U.S. and the expiration of key patents for ingredients in Ozempic and Wegovy across China and Brazil. Furthermore, a recent U.S. administration deal to lower drug prices is expected to exert significant downward pressure on margins, even as demand for GLP-1 treatments remains high.

Market share is also under threat from Eli Lilly, whose rival treatments are aggressively competing for the same patient base. While Wegovy sales continue to expand outside the U.S., analysts suggest that supply chain challenges with third-party manufacturers and domestic competition could dampen North American growth. To offset these pressures, the company is accelerating the launch of its Wegovy weight-loss pill, though UBS analyst Matthew Weston noted that its lower price point may result in a thinner margin contribution compared to traditional injectables.

Looking ahead, the market is focused on 2026 revenue guidance, which Sydbank estimates could reflect a drop of up to 9% in local currency. Jefferies analysts have provided specific modeling for the fourth quarter to benchmark the company's performance:

• Ozempic sales: 29.27 billion kroner
• Wegovy sales: 21.19 billion kroner
• Operating profit decline: Projected between 3% and 11%

Despite these forecasts, the company’s ability to transition patients to oral alternatives and maintain its footprint in emerging markets will be the primary narrative for the fiscal year ahead.