China Private Services Growth Hits Three-Month High in January

The uptick marks the first time in three months that the pace of new order growth has accelerated, according to the report. Analysts attribute the momentum to a combination of new product launches and a recovery in export demand. Yao Yu, founder of RatingDog, noted that the service sector entered the year on a stable footing, though the outlook for February remains split between a holiday-driven consumption boom and a seasonal lull in producer services.

Diverging Economic Signals

The private data stands in sharp contrast to China’s official nonmanufacturing PMI, which fell to 49.4 in January, dipping below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. This discrepancy was also mirrored in manufacturing data; while official factory activity unexpectedly contracted, the RatingDog manufacturing gauge climbed to 50.3 at the start of 2026. This divergence is largely attributed to the surveys' differing focus, with S&P Global’s RatingDog index tracking smaller, export-sensitive private firms rather than state-owned entities.

Despite the pockets of growth in services, the broader Chinese economy continues to struggle with domestic weakness. Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics, argued that the "big picture" remains one of lost momentum, particularly within the manufacturing and construction sectors. This sentiment was echoed by Allan von Mehren of Danske Bank, who described a "two-speed" economy where high-tech industries and exports outperform sluggish domestic demand.