U.S. Natural Gas Storage Set for Record 374 Bcf Withdrawal

A survey of 10 analysts, brokers, and traders conducted by The Wall Street Journal indicates that underground storage likely plummeted to 2,449 Bcf. If the average estimate holds, the decline would eclipse the previous record of 359 Bcf set in January 2018. Individual projections for the week varied, ranging from a low of 358 Bcf to a high of 388 Bcf.

The Scale of the Withdrawal

The anticipated move represents a drastic departure from seasonal norms. The five-year average withdrawal for this specific week typically sits at 190 Bcf. By nearly doubling that figure, the market would see its 143 Bcf surplus over the five-year average vanish, replaced by a 41 Bcf deficit. This rapid erosion of buffers highlights the extreme pressure placed on the energy grid during the peak of the storm.

Supply Disruption and Freeze-offs

Supply-side constraints exacerbated the inventory drain as sub-zero temperatures halted operations across major basins. Production freeze-offs reached a single-day peak of 17 billion cubic feet on Jan. 25, according to data from Wood Mackenzie. These losses occurred simultaneously with the spike in residential and commercial consumption, creating a perfect storm for inventory depletion.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release the official weekly storage data on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EST. Market participants are closely watching the report to confirm whether the storm's impact has fundamentally tightened the balance for the remainder of the winter season.