The week of Feb. 9-13 will be defined by macroeconomic indicators, specifically Wednesday’s non-farm payrolls and Friday’s consumer-price index. According to analysts at Peak Trading Research, softer economic data would likely bolster commodity prices by weakening the dollar and increasing the probability of near-term rate cuts. Beyond the macro outlook, earnings reports from Darling Ingredients and Kraft Heinz are expected to provide further insight into downstream demand.
Supply-side attention turns to Tuesday’s WASDE report, where the U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to provide updates on global inventories. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal anticipate U.S. corn ending stocks will hit 2.26 billion bushels, a sharp increase from the 1.55 billion bushels recorded during the same period last year. While corn stocks are expanding, the market is forecasting slight contractions for soybean and wheat inventories.
Trade Dynamics and Soft Commodities
The trade relationship with China returned to the spotlight after the USDA announced the sale of 246,000 metric tons of soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year. This follows recent statements from President Trump, who indicated he is pressuring China to buy an additional 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year. While the news initially triggered a rally in futures, prices moderated on Monday as the market balanced trade optimism against favorable weather developments in South America.
In the soft commodities sector, coffee and cocoa are coming off a period of intense volatility. Arabica coffee prices fell more than 13% last week as improved rainfall in Brazil eased production concerns, though futures saw a modest rebound on Monday. Analysts at Rabobank noted that cocoa continues to face pressure from expectations of rising supply coupled with cooling global demand.
- Chicago Wheat: $5.27 per bushel
- Corn Futures: $4.28 per bushel
- Soybeans: $11.08 per bushel
- ICE Cocoa: $4,038 per ton
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