Bank of America Sees Oil Surplus Through 2028 as Demand Peaks

The bank’s researchers anticipate global oil consumption will reach 108 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2031, up from 104 million b/d in 2025. While annual growth is expected to hold at 1 million b/d through 2027, BofA predicts this pace will halve by the end of the decade. According to the report, global demand is set to plateau shortly after peaking between 2030 and 2035, marking a significant structural shift in energy consumption patterns.

Supply Pressures and Price Outlook

The surplus is largely attributed to a strategic shift by OPEC+, which plans to reintroduce volumes to the market over the next two years. Coupled with expanding non-OPEC output and improved U.S. shale productivity, these factors are expected to cap price rallies. BofA maintained its average Brent price forecasts at $60 per barrel for the current year and $68 per barrel for 2025, before settling at $62 in 2027.

The analysts noted that downside risks currently outweigh potential upside catalysts, citing weak global economic growth and the possibility of sanctions relief for Russia and Iran. Conversely, the bank identified three primary factors that could trigger a price spike:

• Escalating geopolitical tensions in major producing regions.
• Technical delays in capital-intensive deepwater projects.
• A significant deceleration in the global adoption of electric vehicles.