U.S. Natural Gas Surplus Shrinks Ahead of Winter Season

The projected increase, derived from a survey of 12 analysts and traders, falls notably short of the 96 Bcf five-year average for this time of year. If realized, this build will compress the surplus over historical averages to 53 Bcf, down from 68 Bcf the previous week. Individual estimates among market participants range widely, from 42 Bcf to 91 Bcf, reflecting uncertainty in current supply-demand dynamics.

Looking toward the winter heating season, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects inventories will hit 3,850 Bcf by the end of October. This would place stocks roughly 2% above the five-year average. The agency expects national heating degree days to remain largely flat compared to last winter, citing a 1% decrease from the previous five-year average. The official storage report is due Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.